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Newsweek Delves Into the Great iPod Shuffle Mystery
by , 5:15 PM EST, January 25th, 2005
Newsweek reporter Steven Levy has written an opinion about one of the great mysteries of our time: Is the iPod's shuffle feature truly random? The piece is, of course, tongue-in-cheek, but serves to offer the iPod yet more mainstream press.
Mr. Levy had noticed in the past patterns in the songs chosen by his iPod when he had playbnack set to shuffle.
"It had a particular fondness for Steely Dan," wrote Mr. Levy "whose songs always seemed to pop up two or three times in the first hour of play. Other songs seemed to be exiled to a forgotten corner of the disk drive. Months after I bought "Wild Thing" from the iTunes store, I'm still waiting for my iPod to cue it up."
Mr. Levy found these kinds of patterns so common over the years that he went so far as to ask Apple CEO Steve Jobs about it in an interview. According to Mr. Levy, Steve Jobs called an iPod engineer to check on the issue, and was assured that the shuffle feature is, indeed, random.
Mr. Levy later asked Apple vice president Greg Joswiak the same thing, and he, too, was assured by engineers that "random is random."
Finally, Mr. Levy turned to a mathematics professor for the answer, who explained that in the grand scheme of things truly random events often seem to have patterns that are nothing more than coincidence.
For more on this burning issue, including much more detail from the math professor, read Mr. Levy's interesting editorial.
Observer Comments
For reference, if we assume 300 albums, each with 10 songs, and we choose 100 songs, the chance of any given song coming up is approximately 1/30, and the chance of exactly three songs from a given album coming up is approxmiately 2.7%. So, the chance that the an album that had 3 songs chosen from it would have 3 songs on the next to loads is (2.7%) squared, or about .07%. Small, but within the realms of possibility.
If Mr. Levy simply means that any album had 3 songs chosen from it, then the probabilities get a lot better. Consider that with 300 albums x 10 songs, the chance of not choosing more than 1 song from any album is less than 10% at 39 songs, 1% at 54 songs, and 0.000004% at 100 songs. The chance of choosing not more than 2 takes more brainpower than I have available at the moment, but I guesstimate that it's less than 1%. It is thus USUAL that 3 or more songs would come from the same album, given the sample sizes.
On my mp3 cd player, random isn't actually random. I have figured out how it is randomized. The player randomly picks a FOLDER first, then picks a song. Here is a scenario in which this would matter. I have 3 folders, with blues, rock, and classical music. I only have one blues song and one rock song, so each of those gets chosen a third of the time. However, I have 10 classical songs, so each gets chosen one thirtieth of the time. Does the ipod shuffle have a similar problem?
Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:49 pm Subject: Re: Here's an idea
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