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Financial Times: Is Microsoft Toast?
by , 4:35 PM EST, March 24th, 2005
Microsoft is toast, or at least browning rapidly, according to an editorial published by the Financial Times of London. Thomas W. Hazlett, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, wrote that Apple's growing Mac platform, the emergence of the Mozilla Firefox browser, and even Google's market leading position in search engines are all indicative of Microsoft's decreasing relevance to many.
"The range of product innovation chipping away at the large, increasingly vulnerable incumbent [Microsoft] is impressive, and the diversity of organizational innovation more so," wrote Mr. Hazlett. "Apple is today on the upsurge because its personal computing systems have been vacuum-sealed, and because the company has to the point of fetish delighted in producing its own devices. While either was a distinct liability a decade ago, when Microsoft blew past by seizing the scale advantages of 'open' operating system software, Apple's obsessions look smart now."
At the same time, he said, Mozilla's strengths lie in its Open Source nature, meaning that Microsoft is facing pressure from both Apple's old-school in-house approach as well as Mozilla's new-school model.
All of this, according to Mr. Hazlett, is making Microsoft compete harder, which benefits consumers. This, he said, is something that the antitrutst case against Big Redmond in the US never accomplished.
The full editorial offers a much deeper analysis of the situation, including much more thought on Apple specifically. We recommend it to anyone interested in the business aspects of the tech market.
Observer Comments
Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:51 pm Subject: Can we have a Microsoft Death Knell Counter?
Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:04 pm Subject: Death Knell?
Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:58 pm Subject: Don't die, Microsoft - SUFFER!!
... okay, I don't really mean that. Honest. I truely don't wish bad things upon Microsoft. I don't really feel like I have to it since they are heading towards some pretty monumental challenges that should they manage to get through them maintaining their market dominance, I'd have no resort but to respect them for it.
a.) The security issue - Can Microsoft convince people that their OS can be safe? Not by spreading FUD, not by dismissing the issue, not by profiteering from it, but by educating the users on the basics of network security practices
b.) The Longhorn issue - Can Microsoft really create a next-generation OS that the masses are willing to install? Can they do it with retro-compatibility? Can they do it for computers that cost under $1,000? Will it work? Will it be reliable?
c.) The media-format issue - Can Microsoft remain a viable player in the multimedia format game? Will they dominate it with their DRM or become irrelevant as their architecture gets rejected by the distributors?
d.) Standards - Will Microsoft demand that they be the authors of the new standards or will they work towards making their software compliant with the standards that are being created?
Microsoft is headed for a few very difficult years. They are going to be making decisions that could hurt them badly if the industry and the public doesn't side with them. I still do not see any indication that Microsoft is due for collapse though. The consumer market might not trust them the way they used to, but they are still using their products. I've heard the most anti-Microsoft IT managers admitting how much they like Windows Server 2003, and as much as I love Pages, my office is based on documents that get created on Microsoft Office. Windows XP isn't going to vanish anytime soon either.
Microsoft is going to have to reevaluate its role in the technology world. The company might think of itself as a 200 lbs. gorrila, but that also means that it does a whole lot more damage when it slips on a banana peel. Microsoft is no longer in a position to evolve the way other companies do, and if they don't realize it, that fact will hurt them pretty badly very soon.
But, die? ... no way. Microsoft won't die, but I do foresee a great number of tears.
The problem with MS is what used to be a big strength of theirs... that their entire modus operandi was to be the second guy into any market, and to shove the leader/creator/innovator out of the space with superior size and resources.
The problem is, when you don't innovate, sooner or later ppl begin to see just how mediocre and 'me too' your products really are. When's the last time Microsoft introduced anything as exciting as the iPod? As secure and hassle-free as OS X? As world-changing as Google? And with as much real grassroots support as Firefox?
Don't get me wrong... MS sees the dangers, and has tried to diversify as much as possible, so that even if disaster strikes, it'll survive. I don't have a problem with that, as they are becoming increasingly less relevant. Just wish their decline would accelerate, so that the innovators would have more room to breathe and create the exciting tech future we all want.
MS should just change their name to "Me Too Inc.".
Microsft's entire empire is founded on making poor knock-offs of competing products, and there's always been a big problem with that. If the general public ever finds out how much better the competition is, then Microsoft is dead.
Things worked out for them in the early days because there was less malware around to expose how truly terrible Windows is. When Windows 95 launched, for example, the only apparent problems with the operating system were a user interface that was ackwardly cloned from the Mac OS and general instablity. But now, after ten years, there are tens of thousands of viruses and pieces of spyware that are all ready to demonstrate the magnitude of Windows 95's problems. And that's true of every version of Windows since.
Due to Microsoft's complete and total ineptitude when it comes to security in their operating systems, ten years of malware are now pressing down on them in the forum of an epidemic plague. More and more people are seeing how flimsy and delicate Windows really is.
Microsoft's existence depends on people believing that they offer the better products. That's why there's this trend of calling Mac users "fanatics" and "zealots". They're the ones actually using the better products, so Microsoft needs some way of dismissing everything they say as the rantings of some mad "cult". But Apple's gaining too much popularity and brand recognition with the iPod, and people are slowly beginning to see that it's a lie to say anyone who regards Apple products as the best in the market are "brainwashed Apple zombies". Combined with the growing malware epidemic that plagues Windows with no end in sight, it all spells out one thing. Slowly but surely...
Microsoft is doomed.
QuoteAnonymous wrote:
Microsoft's existence depends on people believing that they offer the better products. That's why there's this trend of calling Mac users "fanatics" and "zealots". They're the ones actually using the better products, so Microsoft needs some way of dismissing everything they say as the rantings of some mad "cult". But Apple's gaining too much popularity and brand recognition with the iPod, and people are slowly beginning to see that it's a lie to say anyone who regards Apple products as the best in the market are "brainwashed Apple zombies".
"Brainwashed iDisciples" is the correct term. A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics."
Quoteswtzrs wrote:
d.) Standards - Will Microsoft demand that they be the authors of the new standards or will they work towards making their software compliant with the standards that are being created?
This is my single biggest problem with Microsoft. Their idea of a "standard" is "works only with Windows." That's good, in a way - all those virii and malware certainly adhere to that standard - but their practice of taking a standard promulgated by a community and polluting it so that nothing but Windows works with it is infuriating and unnecessary.
QuoteBut, die? ... no way. Microsoft won't die, but I do foresee a great number of tears.
It'll do them good. Perhaps they'll come out of it a better corporate citizen.
"A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics.""
Microsoft doesn't value choice. They forced out Nestcape by bundling and then hard-wiring Internet explorer into Windows, they're trying to leverage the WMA format to force out alternatives, and they're convicted of using their monopoly status to try and destroy competitors.
If I want to run the majority of software, I've got no choice but to use a Windows PC. Microsoft is responsible for taking that choice away. And they sure didn't do it through fair business.
So if you want to talk about choice, then don't talk about Microsoft. They're the reason I'm forced to run a copy of Windows on my gaming PC.
It's funny, though. You're talking about choice, but you're trying to scare people away from contemplating the choice between Windows and a Mac. I'm locked in if I use one? Locked into what?
I know I'm not locked into OS X, because I can dive into Unix on a Mac, emulate Windows, or even wipe the harddrive clean and install Linux. I know I'm not locked into buying hardware from Apple, because there are plenty of third party suppliers. I know I'm not locked into a particular format for audio or video or text. I know I'm not locked into the Mac platform, because they can easily interface with Windows PCs. I'm not even locked into using OS X on a Mac. So what exactly am I locked into?
Damn, you're good!
QuoteGuest wrote:
"A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics.""
Microsoft doesn't value choice. They forced out Nestcape by bundling and then hard-wiring Internet explorer into Windows, they're trying to leverage the WMA format to force out alternatives, and they're convicted of using their monopoly status to try and destroy competitors.
If I want to run the majority of software, I've got no choice but to use a Windows PC. Microsoft is responsible for taking that choice away. And they sure didn't do it through fair business.
So if you want to talk about choice, then don't talk about Microsoft. They're the reason I'm forced to run a copy of Windows on my gaming PC.
It's funny, though. You're talking about choice, but you're trying to scare people away from contemplating the choice between Windows and a Mac. I'm locked in if I use one? Locked into what?
I know I'm not locked into OS X, because I can dive into Unix on a Mac, emulate Windows, or even wipe the harddrive clean and install Linux. I know I'm not locked into buying hardware from Apple, because there are plenty of third party suppliers. I know I'm not locked into a particular format for audio or video or text. I know I'm not locked into the Mac platform, because they can easily interface with Windows PCs. I'm not even locked into using OS X on a Mac. So what exactly am I locked into?
Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:06 am Subject: Mom - don't talk...don't think.
QuoteMom wrote:
"Brainwashed iDisciples" is the correct term. A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics."
So...choosing NOT to be on the Windows platform means you don't value choice? Are you nuts?
Most people who 'choose' Windows don't believe they have any choice. They go to the local Computer SuperStore, and pick from Windows-only machines. How many of them do you honestly think have this internal debate on Windows XP vs Mac OS....viruses, spyware, and malware vs Unix....extra Windows software vs fewer titles on Mac....they're just drones that come to the store and get a computer.
Some consciously choose Windows over Mac. That's fine. But if you think that the Mac users are mindless while all the Windows users give thoughtful consideration to their platform is plain backwards.
Fri Mar 25, 2005 1:03 pm Subject: Re: Mom - don't talk...don't think.
Quoteiggyb wrote:QuoteMom wrote:
"Brainwashed iDisciples" is the correct term. A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics."
So...choosing NOT to be on the Windows platform means you don't value choice? Are you nuts?
Most people who 'choose' Windows don't believe they have any choice. They go to the local Computer SuperStore, and pick from Windows-only machines. How many of them do you honestly think have this internal debate on Windows XP vs Mac OS....viruses, spyware, and malware vs Unix....extra Windows software vs fewer titles on Mac....they're just drones that come to the store and get a computer.
Some consciously choose Windows over Mac. That's fine. But if you think that the Mac users are mindless while all the Windows users give thoughtful consideration to their platform is plain backwards.
Agreed.
How many times do you hear "I am using Windows because that is what everybody else (or my work, or whatever) uses"?
Sounds like lack of choice rather than real choice.
QuoteMom wrote:
"Brainwashed iDisciples" is the correct term. A Windows user values choice - hardware, myriad of programs available. Valuing choice over being locked in like Mac fans prefer means they fit the terms "zealots" and "fanatics."
There's only one problem with this line of thinking; a myriad of choices also means a myriad of potential conflicts, finger-pointing and incompatabilities among all the choices. Sure, the Mac may not be the best in all aspects of computing, but it is good enough for most people, and there's far less potential for conflict among the various system components.
What do you value more? Your time, or having a bunch of choices that can help waste even more of your time? Let me put it this way...how many grocery stores are there in your town/city? When you go shopping, do you go to all of them, to get the maximum choice? Or do you value the time you'd spend doing this more than choice?
Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:57 pm Subject: Please, everybody …
… be nice to RC's Mom. She can't help it if she's been brainwashed by her offspring, and neither can she be blamed for having the same spiritual weakness, it's in the DNA …
Besides, everybody knows that going on Windows is definitely a matter of (poor) choice. Just go to Circuit City, Best Buy or Walmart and try to buy a computer, you'll see that THE ONLY CHOICE is a PC … ![]()
Microsoft is far from being toast. While we like to blame Windows for all our security woes, It's really IE that's the problem. Since I have not used IE in well over a year, I simply don't have any issues with Windows (not that I really ever had anyway). I've made my peace with Windows, and I use it as much as I do OS X on my Mac. I have both Machines set up so much the same, that I forget sometimes which system I'm using.
"While we like to blame Windows for all our security woes, It's really IE that's the problem."
No, it isn't. Windows itself is so insecure that I accidentally infected my system with a minor virus when I selected it with my mouse, pressed the delete key, and hit enter to confirm that I wanted it trashed. Windows, however, decided that by pressing enter I must have ment to run the virus loader, so it happily ran it, which promptly infected the system. Nevermind the fact that the 'Confirm File Delete' warning had already popped up by the time I pressed enter, meaning that it should have triggered the 'Yes' button instead.
Internet Explorer is only one of many delivery systems. Windows itself is responsible for what viruses do once they GET delivered.
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