That's crazy. No way Apple hits $600... why can't people be thankful for a great year in Apple and admit it doesn't go straight up? He's probably unloading or shorting Apple and wants to hype the stock.
Any reasonable investor knows Apple stock is more likely to retrace it's gains and hit $150 before it moves higher. Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered. Don't be a pig.

In November 2004 if someone told you that in 14 months Apple would be selling for 3 times its present value, would you have called them irresponsible?

In July of 2006 if someone told you that in 17 months Apple would be selling for 4 times its present value, would you have called them irresponsible?

In December of 2007 if someone told you that in 18 months Apple would be selling for 3 times its present value, would you have called them irresponsible?

So, what's changed, other than the fact that Apple has way more hits on its hands now than it did back then?

Irresponsible, indeed.

Disclaimer: Past performance is no indication of future value. In some cases, it's even better.

I have to agree with Guest. I am pleasantly surprised that AAPL is up to ~$200. I am a bit dubious of the projection of $300 I read yesterday. $600 in 18 months? I really don't think so. That strikes me as what used to be called "Irrational Exuberance" and we know where that lead. Sell, no not yet, but I'm also not holding my breath for $300 let alone $600.

Dislaimer; I did not buy AAPL at $12 because I did not expect it to go much higher.

And I mean that in the most loving possible way.

Nobody has bothered to calculate the return from residual income on the iphone per month.

Sounds like they're finally starting to get it. By this time next year AAPL will ad at least another 5bil to their bank account, thanks mostly to the revenues generated per month from ATT/iPhone customers.

You negative nellies keep naysaying. I'll keep making money on that stock.

The Apple shares have doubled in value every year since Spring 2003, so in that regard Yared's projection is simply consistent with the trajectory of AAPL over the last 5 years or so. But, the doubling in value has accelerated in speed. In addition, the whole tech sector is set for an increase in value, meaning, the tech platform will go up in addition to Apple's own revenue and profit growth. In the end the last will be the most important factor: can Apple continue to double its profit? Given what Apple currently has in its pipeline I'd say that is entirely possible. So $600 in 18 months may be a fairly reasonable projection. Be it said that projections are not "money in the bank".

Would you think me a spoil-sport if I entered a few salient FACTS into the debate?

FACT:

Christmas 2005:
- Apple sold 14 million iPods in December (against 6.4mil in Nov and 8.5mil in Jan).
- If one accepts that the 'natural' demand for iPods in December was the mid-point of Nov and Jan sales (ie: 7.4mil), then over 7mil 'unexpected' people became iPod users during that Christmas. Many iPods are given as Christmas gifts.
- Over the subsequent two quarters, sales of MacBooks increased from 498mil/mth to 986mil/mth (and have never retreated below 891mil/mth since).

Christmas 2006:
- Apple sold 21 million iPods in December (against 8.7mil in Nov and 10.5mil in Jan).
- If one accepts that the 'natural' demand for iPods in December was the mid-point of Nov and Jan sales (ie: 9.1mil), then over 11mil 'unexpected' people became iPod users during that Christmas.
- Over the subsequent two quarters, sales of MacBooks increased from 891mil/mth to 1,347mil/mth.

FACT:
- Apple's average revenue per iPod is $150.
- Apple's average revenue per MacBook is $1,500.
- Although Apple's CPU market share is supposed to be around 8%, Amazon's "25 Bestsellers in Computers & PC Hardware" contained around 7 Apple computers during most of December 2007. In other words, 28% of Amazon's computer sales this Christmas were Macs.
(see http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/pc/ref=pd_ts_pc_nav).
- As I write this, Amazon's "25 Bestsellers in Electronics" contains 8 Apple iPods. In other words, 32% of Amazon's electronics sales this Christmas are iPods.
(see http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/ref=pd_ts_e_nav).

Disclaimers:
1) I have a bucket load of Apple shares, because I'm totally convinced that the market share of Macs will overtake Microsoft Windows within 5 years.
2) When I first entered the IT industry, the company I worked for had one (1) PC, running MS-DOS. It doesn't seem that long ago to me. A lot can change in a relatively short period of time. If only I'd bought MSFT back then.

Regards,
Mark.

(CORRECTED) FACTS:

Christmas 2005:
- Apple sold 14 million iPods in December (against 6.4mil in Nov and 8.5mil in Jan).
- Over the subsequent two quarters, sales of MacBooks increased from 498 THOUSAND/mth to 986 THOUSAND/mth (and have never retreated below 891 THOUSAND/mth since).

Christmas 2006:
- Apple sold 21 million iPods in December (against 8.7mil in Nov and 10.5mil in Jan).
- Over the subsequent two quarters, sales of MacBooks increased from 891 THOUSAND/mth to 1.347 MILLION/mth.

Regards,
Mark.

Disappointed that the 'halo effect' of Christmas iPod sales only doubled MacBook sales?

Just add iPhone to the cocktail:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/12/14/canalys-symbian-apple-iphone-already-leads-windows-mobile-in-us-market-share-q3-2007/

Regards,
Mark.

Quote

Guest wrote:
And I mean that in the most loving possible way.

Nobody has bothered to calculate the return from residual income on the iphone per month.

Sounds like they're finally starting to get it. By this time next year AAPL will ad at least another 5bil to their bank account, thanks mostly to the revenues generated per month from ATT/iPhone customers.

You negative nellies keep naysaying. I'll keep making money on that stock.

There's even more to it. Apple is realizing the revenue from iPhone sales on a "subscription" basis, over a 24-month period. (It's likely that they are doing this, in part, to avoid problems with Sarbanes-Oxley, as they had with the first Intel iMacs and 802.11n, when they had to charge $1.95 for the "upgrade" firmware. This way, they can deliver firmware changes that activate capabilities already built into the hardware without accounting problems.) That means that, even if they stopped selling iPhones Dec 31, they'd be getting revenue each month from previous sales for the next two years, WITHOUT counting any payments from ATT or other carriers. Most analysts have figured in that part of the equation, though I suspect that many "journalists" have not.

Quote

figment wrote:
- Although Apple's CPU market share is supposed to be around 8%, Amazon's "25 Bestsellers in Computers & PC Hardware" contained around 7 Apple computers during most of December 2007. In other words, 28% of Amazon's computer sales this Christmas were Macs.

In logic, that's called a "non sequitur." The ranking of various products does NOT say ANYTHING about the actual sales. The sales could be like this:

1. 82%
2. 10%
3. 4%
4. 1%
5. 0.5%
6. ...

or they could be:

1. 8.042%
2. 8.041%
3. 8.039%
4. 8.034%
5. 8.032%

In both cases, the ranking is the same, but the actual sales are very different. You can't just use 7/25.

There's another bit to consider about Amazon rankings: they are based on SKUs: every product with its own SKU is counted separately. That means every color of iPod is counted separately. That may understate OR overstate the position of a line of products. Typically, it understates the iPod position because the iPod comes in more different versions/SKUs than, say, the Zune. In PCs, though, it may overstate the MacBook/MacBook Pro/iMac position, because there are generally FEWER versions/SKUs of Apple computers than most other brands, especially as Amazon does not sell the customized versions of Macs (e.g., with more RAM, larger HDs) that the Apple Store does.