Piper Jaffray Says Fear Outweighing Fundamentals for AAPL

by , 12:15 PM EDT, September 30th, 2008

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said on Monday in a note to investors obtained by TMO, that fear is outweighing fundamental analysis as investors aren't seeing the light at the end of the investment crisis tunnel

Mr. Munster wrote:

1. Consumer [spending] is slowing, but Street models reflect the slowdown. Our FY08 Mac unit growth estimate is 40%, going to 16% in FY09. We expect Mac growth of 29% this quarter.
2. We believe margin pressure concerns will prove to be overblown. The Street is modeling for 32% gross margin in FY09, down from 34% in FY08. We expect margin guidance to be 30-31% for December, in line or above the company's 30% gross margin guidance for FY09.
3. A disappointing preannouncement for Sept. is unlikely. We do not believe Apple will preannounce a disappointing September quarter. Our analysis of two months of NPD data on Mac and iPod, which has a 0.90 correlation, suggests 5% upside to Street numbers.

The PJC analyst noted that there is big picture risk, with the U.S. banking meltdown spreading to Europe, and a continued global slowdown will impact equity investments. However, "Apple is better positioned than other tech players to weather the storm," he concluded.