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Just a Thought - Apple's New Cards: Aces and Kings?
by
- September 14th, 2006So Apple showed its cards on Tuesday, and it wasn't a bad hand at all: A nice pair of aces with the new iPod nano and Shuffle, and a pair of kings with the announcement of iTV and the newly refurbished iTunes Store -- no longer the iTunes Music Store, I guess it isn't just about the music anymore -- and iTunes.
The question is, will two pair be good enough to keep the other players at bay?
The new iPod nano is what many will say is the device Apple should have replaced the mini with. The rugged aluminum case of the mini is legendary, as opposed to the tough, but easily scratched case of the nano. The mini was a tank that played music, and people loved them, as the hot trade of minis on eBay will attest. It now seems only logical that Apple has realized its mistake and designed the new nano around the mini's form factor. Good move.
And colors! Pink is back, and many feminine iPod buyers are now very happy campers.
How about the shuffle? Is that a sweet little bit of digital wonderment or what? I couldn't care less that it doesn't have a screen; the thing is the size of a book of matches and about twice as heavy. It's a music badge. It's like a Hershey's kiss, a bit of music wrapped in aluminum. At US$79, you can even afford to give them to people you don't like.
Then there's iTV: Someone at Apple has been burning the midnight oil. Whatever Apple winds up calling it, there's no doubt people will want it. Movies, music and photos directly from my computer in my den (actually, it a spare bedroom I share with my wife's needle-crafts) to my big-screen TV in my family room, wirelessly, anytime I want! Couch potatoes everywhere have switched cheeks in anticipation.
The iTunes Store looked good before, now it's just plain gorgeous, Things are easy to find, the store seems more responsive, and how can you not like the album cover review? Very nice indeed.
Along with the store, iTunes has been smartened up a bit as well. Again, the new views are welcomed and fun to use, and the album cover download, even for those that were ripped into iTunes, is a nice touch. However, the new album view does show, quite graphically, that even with its prestigious catalogue of music, the iTunes Store does not have everything. So there's still room for growth, eh Apple?
That's just a minor nit. If you are looking for bigger problems with the new iTunes Store you'll only have to look at the new movie offerings. I have more movies in my DVD collection (to my shame). Yes, I know this is likely not Apple's fault, I'm sure Steve Jobs did and is doing his best to get other studios to sign up, which is likely harder to do now that Amazon is offering movies as well. In fact, Amazon seems to have all of the other major movies studios on its side, offering movies for downloading to Windows PCs only, and with some rather tight DRM restrictions, for $10 to $15.
Apple's offerings are competitive, but the selection is rather thin. Signing up some of the independent studios would have been a good move for Apple. I like movies from small independent shops versus the multi-mega-budget, blockbuster wannabes that the big studios push out. Small budget movies must rely on a good story, decent acting, and good directing to grab and hold our attention. A lot of well known actors also prefer small budget movies over the FX-ladened super-movies.
For instance, Elijah Wood, forever famous for playing Frodo Baggins in the Lord of the Rings series, and who was likely offered any script he wanted, seems to prefer small movies that play at film festivals and coffee houses. Two of the three movies he did in 2005 were never widely released, but both films -- Green Street Hooligans and Everything is Illuminated -- were excellent movies and deserve the broader exposure iTunes Store can give.
That said, Steve Jobs did say that more movies are coming, and if you had to start with one studio, Disney would be a great choice.
The other disappointment was the iPod.
OK, so the new one can handle 80 gigs; whoop-di-do! It's the same form factor as the last generation's iPod. While I love that the little screen is brighter, it is still a little screen. Now that we can get movies on iPods it is silly to watch them on hobbit-sized video real estate. Apple knows this, and Jobs has said as much before. (Suddenly Microsoft's Zune doesn't look so bad!)
I could speculate all day long as to why Apple decided to hold on to the old iPod form a little while longer, but doing so would serve no purpose; it is what it is. Apple will still sell a bunch of them, which is what it's all about. And I've got a gut feeling that we'll be seeing a big-screen iPod within the next six months.
So, will this very strong two-pair Apple is holding be enough to take the pot in this round of high-stakes poker? I think so. If we look at what cards the other players have -Amazon with its DRM-ladened and non-iPod compatible Unbox is a pair of tens at best, and Microsoft's Zune is a lonely jack. - we can see that they really can't do much else than bluff.
Apple will likely take this pot, but this is poker, and someone is bound to wind up with a better hand than Apple's at some point. When that happens it'll be interesting to see how Apple plays it. In the meantime, it's good to be the guy with the biggest stack of chips at the table. Very good indeed.
is a writer who currently lives in Orlando, FL. He's been a Mac fan since Atari Computers folded, but has worked with computers of nearly every type for 20 years.
You can send your comments directly to me, or you can also post your comments below.
Most Recent Columns From Just A Thought
- Apple's New Cards: Aces and Kings? - September 14th
- Power to the People - September 1st
- Too Soon To Zune - August 28th
The Just A Thought Archives
Observer Comments
"It's the same form factor as the last generation's iPod."
The new iPod is still 5th generation. This is not a new generation, just a refresh of the current generation. It's not the first time Apple has tweaked the specs on a iPod to refresh it.
I'm sure a 6th generation is coming (although maybe not this year). And a separate Video ipod with a huge screen as well.
Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:25 pm Subject: Indie movies
This evening I purchased several indie movies, well "shorts", from the iTunes Store.
•The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
• Untitled 003: Embryo
• The Last Farm
Check out the Shorts International offerings on the iTunes Store. They have some excellent selections if you are into these type of movies. Niche movies for a niche computer?
Disney and Pixar will sell a lot, but Apple needs more of the mainstream studios to make the big bucks.
Thu Sep 14, 2006 11:39 pm Subject: 75 movies ...
From the article:
QuoteThat's just a minor nit. If you are looking for bigger problems with the new iTunes Store you'll only have to look at the new movie offerings. I have more movies in my DVD collection (to my shame).
Lessee, according to DVDpedia, I have over 1800 DVDs (boxes, not disks--lots more disks than that). Quite a few are of TV shows, but, considering that I have 16 "50 Movie" sets (some overlap, of course) and lots of other boxed sets, I probably have over 2,000 movies.
QuoteGuest wrote:
2 of my family have already decided to hold, for the G6 iPod they know is coming. One has an older Nano the other a G3 so it's not like they're doing without:-)
The new shuffle is the gun hidden under the table, it's all about iTunes lock and load.
Apple will probably sell 'leventy million Shuffles and a gajillion Minis ... er, Nanos.
A 1 GB Shuffle would be perfect to load up a couple of audiobooks for a long plane trip--a lot smaller & lighter than a printed book. Now, if it could just detect when I fell asleep listening, it would be perfect. A useful software feature for any iPod, especially the shuffle, would be an auto-off after, say, 15 minutes, and the ability to go back to the last auto-off.
While reading all the stuff on Zune is interesting, no matter the good and the bad, we will have to see the cost, form factor and usability once it gets here to really make an informed opinion. I wouldn't count MSFT out, especially since they have the money to have the staying power to play around with things until they get things right. I don't think Apple/Jobs will take MSFT for granted given their previous history.
I am still wondering about Zune's wireless service being a security risk. I really haven't seen that discussed in any articles. Do you think you will be allowed to bring a Zune to work with you if you are involved with any sensitive information? It will also be interesting to see how MSFT fares getting this to work across all brands of computers. Instead of the cpu makers having to make sure they work will Windows, now it is up to MSFT to make sure that their device works well with all the other hardware that is out there. Lots of interesting things out there right now.
One last thing. I would think that in order for Zune to get any traction, it will have to be available by Halloween in order to give people a chance to look and compare. I am thinking that they can't wait for Thanksgiving because many people's lists will be made up by that time or they won't take a chance on something that doesn't have a track record, unless it is really a compelling device at a compelling price. With all the things they are talking about in the Zune, I don't know if they can sell this for less than $250 and make any kind of profit on it.
Neal
Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:03 am Subject: One other thing...
that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. The Zune will only have one model available that competes only with the regular iPod. It really doesn't have anything to compete with the shuffle and Nano which will definitely be the better sellers during the holiday season. And buying those puts users into Apple's iTunes ecosystem.
Neal
QuoteGuest wrote:
Auto-off is included in the software for the regular iPod and the Nano.....I've used it when listening to my iPod while falling asleep.
OK, where is it? I don't have a Nano but I do have a 5G iPod. I can't find any setting for this. There is a setting to turn off the backlight after X seconds, but that's not auto-off. The 5G iPod will pause if the headphone plug is pulled, but that's not auto-off, either.
Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:54 pm Subject: Auto-off sleep function
Quotegslusher wrote:QuoteGuest wrote:
Auto-off is included in the software for the regular iPod and the Nano.....I've used it when listening to my iPod while falling asleep.
OK, where is it? I don't have a Nano but I do have a 5G iPod. I can't find any setting for this. There is a setting to turn off the backlight after X seconds, but that's not auto-off. The 5G iPod will pause if the headphone plug is pulled, but that's not auto-off, either.
Check out these links:
http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=60945
http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=61144
QuoteEdison Carter wrote:
Check out these links:
http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=60945
http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=61144
Thanks. I found it, myself, a few minutes before I checked here. I didn't dig deep enough into the Clock function. That will be useful. So will be the alarm clock--to wake me up with something fairly loud, compared to an Audible audiobook. I put Sleep on the Main menu and got rid of Shuffle songs, which I never use.
Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:04 pm Subject: Poker between apple and MSFT
Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:14 pm Subject: Zune flies in the face of MSFTs business as usual.
Microsoft will not be able to do things as it normally does when it comes to hardware sales. Their long track record of selling hardware at a loss (Xbox, 360), only to make it up on the software end won't work in the mp3, Portable media arena will it? Apple's margins are pushing 50% on iPods. So therein lies the profit. Apple's iTunes store is priced to cover costs, pay royalties, and make a "modest" profit on a per-download basis. So how does Microsoft compete? The hardware can't be a loss-leader only to have its sales driven by an online store that barely turns a profit. They cant sell content for MORE than iTunes and realistically hope to compete, so making it up on content (software titles) isn't going to cut it. So What Microsoft has to do with Zune is produce a high-margin product that has as much, or in this case MORE value (in terms of features offered) than an "equivalent" iPod, but they have to price it at or below Apple's comparable unit. I believe it will have to be below in this case in order to take a meaningful swipe at he iPod cache'. Additionally, The Zune store will have to sell downloads at equal or better quality with a DRM scheme AT LEAST as permissive as Apple's and its library will have to be comparable in terms of quality and selection...priced competitively with iTunes of course. Finally, Microsoft will have to create a software platform that is comparable to iTunes in terms of ease-of-use, functionality, and "cool". These are a lot of no-so-small hurdles to overcome. Apple achieved what it has so far in slow, methodical baby steps over a 6 year period. Something will eventually dethrone the iPod as king of all digital media players, but I seriously question whether Zune will be that contender.
Quoteacdc1174 wrote:
Something will eventually dethrone the iPod as king of all digital media players, but I seriously question whether Zune will be that contender.
I agree with all of your statements/observations/expectations. But this last one leaves me wondering if it won't be Apple that outdoes themselves to beat the iPod.
[sidebar]I remember when MP3s were first available. I was using WinAMP and AudioGrabber and burning 650 meg CDs of my songs. No naming schemes, no consistency in the quality of the compression, and no portable player. I remember being really annoyed that I couldn't put that CD into my CD player and have it work. I knew how simple WinAMP was, and I kept staring at my Sony Discman and HP 48G+ graphing calculator (with fairly large screen) wishing I knew how to merge the two. The variety of controls of the calculator, as well as its screen, and the ability to read CDs from the discman. Throw in a stripped down version of Linux and you have yourself a portable MP3 player.
At the time I was selling cameras at a local shop. Digital cameras had been known to exist, but few had ever seen one. My brother got one (320x240? 640x480?) as part of some promotion. We weren't impressed. But then as the 1024x768 res and higher cameras started coming out (Olympus seemed to lead the way, at least within the stock we sold) we started to see solid state memory cards. Capacities of 4mb and 8mb weren't impressive to a guy who wanted to make a compact MP3 player, but I saw the potential.
It was a long time before I saw an actual portable device for playing MP3s. You know what it was? A CD player with a big LCD screen (monochrome) and a bunch of buttons. Some unheard of computer company produced it, and the sound left much to be desired, but I was very happy to have it. And I paid $150 for it. Eventually better devices showed up, including solid state models, and then Apple changed the landscape forever. Their engineers and designers knew exactly what I wanted.
Why the trip down memory lane? Because I believe someone like me is already imagining the Next Big Thing. Hopefully s/he has the skills to develop it, in ways that I couldn't for mine. And then Steve & Jonathan can make it sexy in ways that nothing with batteries (and I mean nothing) ever has before.
Or will it lack batteries?
- Jon
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