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The Back Page - Apple Death Knell #49: No Macs by 2010

by - Match 8th, 2006

I've read a lot of crap during the seven years I've been editor-in-chief of The Mac Observer (and the two years before that I was a contributing editor for Webintosh), but every once in a while, someone is able to pull something from so far up their nether regions, that even I am nonplussed by the inanity.

To wit: Chris Seibold's piece at AppleMatters titled, "Five Reasons Why There Will Be No Macs in 2010." While well written (something not usually true from the usual suspects in the Apple Death Knell Counter), Mr. Siebold's five reasons are just absurd.

In fact, they are so absurd, the whole piece might be satire, but I don't actually think that's the case. If so, the joke's on me, because this piece is being added to the Apple Death Knell Counter as Apple Death Knell #49.

As I am heading out of the office for a vacation, I will jump right into a brief deconstruction of Mr. Siebold's five arguments.

Reason # 1: Something about Windows Vista being so much better than Windows XP as to make it unreasonable for Apple to continue to make Macs. I am not sure exactly what his point is, as this was his most vague reason, so there's not much to deconstruct.

Reason #2: Apple is running out of cool cat names for OS X, so it will have to stop making the OS. This was the part that made think that maybe the piece was satire, but this argument is presented in so straight-forward a manner that I think it's a legit argument. Well, not legit, because it's just insanely stupid.

Apple will run out of cat names, but rather than throwing up their hands and saying "We give up," OS X will be replaced by a new iteration of the operating system (call it OS XI for the sake of argument) with a new naming convention that likely doesn't involve animals at all. Bah, it's just so silly...

Reason #3: Apple's switch to Intel will mean that few will be willing to shell out the extra bucks for Apple's hardware because they will prefer to get a cheap box from a toaster maker like Dell, HP, etc.

It's fair to say that Apple has still to demonstrate that it can sell Intel-powered Macs, but heading into the transition Apple's market share was on the rise. Personally, I think that Apple's efforts to change the rules by which it competes -- away from lowest common denominator economics and towards design, function, and style -- will continue to be successful.

This is a matter of opinion, of course, and only time will tell.

Reason #4: The success of the iPod means that Apple will stop caring about the Mac and focus on this super-profitable aspect of its business, the music business. To back it up, Mr. Seibold offered a statistic from 2004 when the Mac's market share hit an all-time low.

Ignored is the fact that the Mac's market share is on the rise, and is higher than it has been in years, but that frankly doesn't matter because of the things I will point out in reason #5.

Reason #5: Apple's switch to Intel means that Apple will finally see how much smarter it is to become a software-only company (like Microsoft), that it will make OS X run on any beige box made by any dilrod PC maker.

This is a common argument from people that don't understand Apple or Steve Jobs. The latter thinks that proprietary solutions where the manufacturer controls the whole widget are better, and the latter controls the former. Tada! That's it. That is the only deconstruction needed.

I'll clarify, though: As long as Steve Jobs is running Apple, Apple will make computers that are controlled by Apple. This is a fundamental aspect of what makes Steve Jobs tick, and it trumps everything else. If you want to see proof of this, look at the way the iPod and iTunes work, and the success of those two products vindicates Steve Jobs' convictions on this issue in every conceivably way.

Should Steve Jobs leave Apple (again), it is possible that the company would stop making Mac hardware, but then all bets would be off anyway. Personally, I think that Steve Jobs is happy to be at Apple and will remain at the company for some time to come.

Conclusion

In short, Apple will continue to make Macs as long as Steve Jobs is at the helm. When and if the Mac ever stops being made, it will be because Apple has replaced it with a new proprietary computer where the company still controls the whole widget.

That's really all there is to it.

[Edit: This column was edited to correctly reflect Mr. Seibold's #3 reason. - Bryan]


began using Apple computers in 1983 in a high school BASIC programming class. He started using Macs in 1990 when the Kinko's guy taught him how to use Aldus PageMaker, finally buying a Power Computing Power 100 in 1995. Today, Bryan is the Editor of The Mac Observer, and has contributed to the print versions of MacAddict and MacFormat (UK).

You can send your comments directly to him, or you can also post your comments below.

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Show: Subjects Only | Full Comments
View Name:Guest
Subject: Spell Checker
Close Name:Bosco Posts: 999 Joined: 03 Jun 2002
Subject: You got punked.

Too funny. The article was tongue in cheek. Geez.

Close Name:fartheststar Posts: 214 Joined: 04 Jan 2004
Subject: guests

Whenever I see Guest posts, it's almost always negative.

"I want to be rude or dump on this article" but I dont' want to log in so people will know who I am.

I find most of the worthless comments are from guests and thankfully guests posts aren't automatically viewed.

Have an opinion, log in and say it!

Having said that, this article is a fun look at the death knell and I love it.

View Name:Guest
Subject: guest posts
Close Name:Bryan -   TMO Staff Posts: 7331 Joined: 11 Jun 2001
Subject:

Spell checking: I fear I hadn't! That has been corrected now, though, and I appreciate the note.

As to whether or not I was punked, as I noted in the column, it's possible. If Mr. Seibold's column is a joke, however, it wasn't over the top enough to be truly funny, but whatever. Comedy is in the eye of the beholder.

Close Name:ireid2k Posts: 125 Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Subject: You know. . .

. . . I might get flamed for this but. . . what the hey. I think that the BRAND Mac may be replaced by something else by 2010. That being said the actual meat on the bone (OS X and X2 etc an dthe Hardware) will remain the 'whole widget.' So it will be the iComputer or something. . .lol now thats funny!

View Name:Guest
Subject: OSX "Tabby"
View Name:Guest
Subject: So I'm a guest, sue me
Close Name:Rainy Day Posts: 607 Joined: 07 Jun 2005
Subject: When parody goes unnoticed

The problem is that a Windoze cultist/fanatic could easily say everything mentioned above and be dead-serious. Well, one would have to wonder about the cat-name comment.

Close Name:Al Swearengen Posts: 339 Joined: 10 May 2005
Subject: Hello Kitty

I hope they don't get to the point of using the Hello Kitty to name an OS http://www.sanrio.com/hellokitty/

As to spelling. Bryan what are you using to create pages? I often write copy in TextEdit or something where I can turn on auto-spelling and then paste it into GoLive.

View Name:Guest
Subject:
Close Name:NoVaMac Posts: 121 Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Subject: Gentle guest

One can be a member and remain anonymous. That's why you make up a Handle! Example: NoVaMAc, is not my real name...

Feline titles will never run dry, or I figure apple has a few decades worth of cats, if they wish to exhaust them all.
There are currently 36 different species of wild cats. The cats, or the Family Felidae, belong to the Order Carnivora - the carnivores.

Apple Rules The know Universe

Close Name:NoVaMac Posts: 121 Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Subject: Also...

Who gives a frack about grammer! Well, obviously a few. But, this is not, The Grannys english class from hell Observer.
As for guest who has too many logins...ever hear of auto-fill??? I don't know half of my names or passwords...that's what computers are for!!!

Winblows Vista...what happened to longborn? Muhahahaha

Close Name:Al Swearengen Posts: 339 Joined: 10 May 2005
Subject: Do you really...

Quote
NoVaMac wrote:
One can be a member and remain anonymous. That's why you make up a Handle! Example: NoVaMAc, is not my real name...e


Do you really think that I am Al Swearengen of the Gem Salon in Deadwood? He is my alter ego, my nom de blog http://www.hbo.com/deadwood/cast/character/alswearengen.shtml Truth be told I am more like Seth Bullock with a "dose" of Doc Cochran thrown in, but sometimes I have to get out of the real world.

It is probably time I get a new handle, maybe something out of Shakespeare.

Close Name:ireid2k Posts: 125 Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Subject: Shakespeare

Haha. Hamlet or Julius Ceaser?



Quote
Al Swearengen wrote:
Quote
NoVaMac wrote:
One can be a member and remain anonymous. That's why you make up a Handle! Example: NoVaMAc, is not my real name...e


Do you really think that I am Al Swearengen of the Gem Salon in Deadwood? He is my alter ego, my nom de blog http://www.hbo.com/deadwood/cast/character/alswearengen.shtml Truth be told I am more like Seth Bullock with a "dose" of Doc Cochran thrown in, but sometimes I have to get out of the real world.

It is probably time I get a new handle, maybe something out of Shakespeare.

View Name:Guest
Subject: Plenty of cool cat names left...
Close Name:Al Swearengen Posts: 339 Joined: 10 May 2005
Subject: Maybe

Quote
ireid2k wrote:
Haha. Hamlet or Julius Ceaser?
It is probably time I get a new handle, maybe something out of Shakespeare.
[/quote]

Maybe Sir Toby Belch from Twelfth Night; "Dost thou think, because thou art virtuous, there shall be no more cakes and ale?"

View Name:Guest
Subject: Death Knell # 50 Prize?
View Name:Guest
Subject: Chops
Close Name:macinnerd Posts: 1708 Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Subject:

Somehow I have a feeling that Mac OS X v. 10.X.X Bobcat will never happen ( but, come to think of it...)

I agree with every one else that the Cat Name argument is one of the lamest (if not the lamest) in ADKC history. Someone has to go easy on the crack.

Quote
Chris Seibold wrote:
Unless Steve and company start genetically engineering new cats, the Mac is in serious trouble .


Whew.

Close Name:Nom Posts: 58 Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Subject:

Actually, Bryan, I think your summarising of reason #3 is incorrect.

Reason #3: Now that Macs run on Intel too, people will be able to directly compare them with Dell or HP machines and see that the non-Macs are significantly cheaper.

Rebuttal: Significantly cheaper only if you are willing to settle for the cut-down version rather than adding several hundred $ to (say) Dell's advertised priced for a similarly spec-ed (ie complete) machine. Which is cheaper on any given day depends a lot on where you are in Apple and Dell's respective pricing cycles (Apple's seems to be a lot longer, 4-6 months or more). And that's without considering TCO or longevity, or non-financial needs like usability.

Close Name:Bryan -   TMO Staff Posts: 7331 Joined: 11 Jun 2001
Subject: Re: Chops

Quote
Anonymous wrote:
> Bryan Chaffin began using Apple computers in 1983 in a high school BASIC programming class. He started using Macs in 1990 when the Kinko's guy taught him how to use Aldus PageMaker, finally buying a Power Computing Power 100 in 1995. Today, Bryan is the Editor of The Mac Observer, and has contributed to the print versions of MacAddict and MacFormat (UK).

Wow. What chops. LOL


I think you are misusing "chops," which is usually used to refer to someone's execution of a particular task.

For instance, a drummer's chops usually refer to his ability to play fast, to play complicated rudiments well, etc.

A writer's chops would often refer to his ability to turn a phrase, evoke imagery, etc.

Try again, though, at whatever it is you were attempting to say.

Bryan
Editor
TMO



Last edited by Bryan on Thu Mar 09, 2006 3:22 am; edited 1 time in total
Reply | Quote
View Name:Guest
Subject: I think that whole article was nonsense
Close Name:iJack Posts: 283 Joined: 13 Jun 2001
Subject: Bryan,

I don't think in all the years reading your articles and comments, I have ever seen you so steamed. I'm sure I've never seen you write the word "crap," though this time, it was well placed.

Listen, I'm from New Jersey. If you want, I'll just go 'chastise' this guy for yuz.

Close Name:Bryan -   TMO Staff Posts: 7331 Joined: 11 Jun 2001
Subject:

Quote
Nom wrote:
Actually, Bryan, I think your summarising of reason #3 is incorrect.


Thanks Nom (and I so love that name and the books it came from). You are correct. In my haste to get this published, I misremembered #3. I have corrected the column accordingly, and I appreciate the note!

Bryan
Editor
TMO

Close Name:Bryan -   TMO Staff Posts: 7331 Joined: 11 Jun 2001
Subject:

Thanks iJack. I wasn't so much angry as annoyed that I had to take the time to rebut such a silly piece.

No breaking of legs, however, will be necessary....

Close Name:Semeyaza Posts: 130 Joined: 29 Aug 2002
Subject: cat names

Anyway Apple can always change its naming scheme from cats to other animals. Think about it... some raptor names for example..

"Up until now we made you run like leopards and Jaguars, but from now on you'll fly Higher than the clouds!

Presenting Mac OsX 10.7 - Eagle! "

Cheers

View Name:Guest
Subject: Various logins issue
View Name:Guest
Subject: Re: No cat names?
Close Name:macinnerd Posts: 1708 Joined: 15 Jun 2005
Subject:

Semeyaza's right about Apple not needing to use "cool cat names" to market the OS. Who'd be dumb enough to believe that they do?

Excuse me?

Oh, yes, I forgot...

Cool naming is just a marketing perk: Apple has already got such a good system, called OS X (a pretty cool name in itself, compared to Windows Vista or System 7.1 Pro), tha they don't really need the "Tiger" nickname for the product to be successful.

Close Name:hangtown Posts: 109 Joined: 03 Dec 2005
Subject:

Most of this thread is more proof not to allow guests to post.

View Name:Guest
Subject: cool cat names
Close Name:macintoast Posts: 1 Joined: 02 Nov 2001
Subject: cool cat names

FYI, there are 37 species of cats so apple still has plenty more before the list runs dry. just think , OSX ocelot or for the server, how appropriate would OSX serval be!

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