Analyst: Apple to Sell 11M iPhones in 2008, 17M in 2009

by , 11:40 AM EDT, May 12th, 2008

Apple's recent deals to expand iPhone coverage to additional countries will dramatically increase the potential base, allowing the company to sell about 11 million iPhones in 2008 and 17 million in 2009, according to American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu. Based on his new model, Apple will likely sell 14.6 million iPhones total by the end of 2008.

"We are raising our forecast for cumulative iPhone shipments by the end of 2008 to 14.6 million from 11 million units," Mr. Wu said. "This represents 11 million units for the calendar year. For calendar year 2009, we raising our unit forecast to 17 million from 10 million."

He added "Last week, agreements were announced with Vodafone, Telecom Italia, America Movil and Roger Wireless, and we expect others before year end. We estimate that Apple's total addressable market for subscribers expands significantly from about 150 million to more than 470 million."

That increase will give Apple's bottom line a boost, too. Mr. Wu is now estimating Apple will show US$32.5 billion in revenue and $5.27 ESP for fiscal 2008, up from his earlier estimate of $32.3 billion and $5.25 EPS. For fiscal 2009, he is modeling $38.6 billion in revenue with $6.40 EPS, up from $37 billion and $6.15 EPS.

Mr. Wu's June quarter estimates remain unchanged at $7.31 billion and $1.10 EPS. The September quarter, however, will likely come in slightly above his earlier estimate of $7.9 billion and $1.23 EPS at $8.05 billion in revenue with $1.25 EPS. "We see iPhone having a more meaningful impact in fiscal 2009 as volumes pick up to 9 percent of revenue, becoming a more material part of Apple," he said.

Mr. Wu is maintaining his "Buy" rating and $220 target price for Apple's stock. Apple is currently trading at $185, up 1.55 (0.84%).

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